Jul 7 2010
Primary School Populations Projected to Rise!
The last couple of weeks have been very interesting with information coming out of the ONS and the Department of Education indicating that, far from primary school numbers forecast to fall, these numbers are set to rise to record levels by 2018! This, coupled with the effective moratorium on the schools building programme, may cause some headaches for school planners. Indeed, it must cause some consternation in many local education authorities that have based their strategies on falling rolls rather than increasing rolls.
In June 2010, the BBC reported on this issue. The full news item can be seen by clicking the link below:
BBC news item – Primary Pupil Numbers “Growing”
A recent newspaper article in the Daily Mail in July 2010 reported the following:
“Children face an unprecedented scramble for primary school places following forecasts that pupil numbers will rise by more than 500,000 in only eight years.
Schools will come under intense pressure as the number of four to eleven year olds increases to its highest levels since the 1970s.
They will be forced to accommodate 540,000 extra youngsters at a time of severe public spending cuts prompting fears that pupils will be taught in classes of more than 40 or in temporary buildings. According to projections by the Department of Education the numbers at nursery and primary schools is predicted to soar to 4,526,000 by 2018 – the biggest total for four decades. This is a 13.5 per cent increase on the current number 3,986,000.
The equivalent of more than 2000 extra primary schools will be needed to accommodate the extra pupils.
London will be particularly hard-hit. The primary population in the capital is expected to grow by 16% to 748,000 by 2014.”
This just acknowledges what many parents groups have felt for some time that primary school populations are on the verge of explosion after evidence of high birth rates over the last few years.
It does seem a pity that many education authorities have been blind to these trends even when they have had them pointed out by parents groups.
On the evidence now provided by ONS (Office of National Statistics) many local authorities should now have the good grace to at least review their school place planning strategies and the assumptions they are built on. The current emphasis on school closures should now be challenged strongly as the primary school stocks must be seen as assets rather than liabilities in the current economic climate.
The new coalition government has promised to review capital spending in the autumn spending review with priority going to primary school building.
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